The Union of
Concerned Scientists recently published an assessment of climate change in
California.
They based their assessment on the
results from two global climate models, one with a relatively low sensitivity to CO2 doubling (PCM), and the other with a relatively high sensitivity (HADCM3).
They
looked at outcomes in California for two scenarios. One is Òbusiness as usualÓ scenario, that envisages fossil fuel emissions increasing at approximately the
same rate as present for the remainder of the 21st century.
The other is a lower emissions scenario, where emissions continue to increase but at a lower
rate, stabilizing
around 2050, then declining to levels below the present level by 2100.
There
are therefore two scenarios for each model, giving a range of possible outcomes for
California.
The
global modelsÕ resolutions are on the order of 200 km. Regional details have been
supplied by a regional climate model.